Working Paper 6: Institutional Impacts and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability and Extremes in Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed

Pulhin, J.M., Aco, F.A., Peras R.J.J. and Tapia, M.A. July 2004. Environmental Forestry Programme.  College of Forestry and Natural Resources.  University of the Philippines Los Baños.  Laguna. Philippines.

Paper submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), a joint project of START, the Third World Academy of Sciences, and the UN Environment Programme. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the corresponding author.

ABSTRACT

The watershed ecosystem in the Philippines is predicted to be adversely affected by the occurrences of climate variability and extremes. Key watershed institutions play a critical role in developing strategies to mitigate the impacts of extreme climate events on this ecosystem. This study explores the impacts and adaptation strategies developed by institutions in the Pantabangan-Carrangalan Watershed to cope with the impacts of climate variability and extremes.

Climate variability and extremes presented both positive and negative effects to the different institutions in the watershed. However, the adverse impacts outweighed the beneficial ones. These affected the overall aspect of operation of the institutions, particularly the delivery of major services provided by the watershed, i.e., irrigation and power generation.

Reforestation, forest protection, IEC, and adjustments in program implementation are the major adaptation strategies performed by the PCW institutions to cope with the impacts of climate variability and extremes. While most of these practices improve the condition of the watershed and thereby the services that it provides, they do not address the operational problems faced by the institutions in times of extreme climate events.

It is recommended to procure new equipment and adopt new technologies that could enhance their mechanism to cope with the impacts of climate variability and extremes. Though fund availability is a problem, alternative financial sources should be explored.

Lasco, R.D., Pulhin, F.B. and Roy, S.S.N. July 2004.  Environmental Forestry Programme.  College of Forestry and Natural Resources.  University of the Philippines Los Baños.  Laguna. Philippines.

Paper submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), a joint project of START, the Third World Academy of Sciences, and the UN Environment Programme. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the corresponding author.

ABSTRACT

Climate change is expected to affect tropical forest ecosystems of the world. To date, the potential impacts of climate change on Philippine forests has not been quantitatively assessed. Thus, the main objective of the study was to assess climate change impacts on Philippine forests ecosystems using GIS and the Holdridge Life Zones. Three synthetic scenarios each of precipitation (increase of 50%, 100% and 200%) and air temperature (increase of 1^oC, 1.5^oC and 2^oC) were used in the study. These scenarios are within the limits of GCM projections for the country. 

The study showed that dry forests (more than 1 M ha) are the most vulnerable to climate change. They will be eliminated even with a 50% increase in rainfall. If rainfall doubles, even the moist forests (3.5 M ha) will be totally replaced. On the positive side, the wet and rain forest life zones will significantly expand as dry and moist forests become wetter. Thus overall, it is expected that the total area of forest in the Philippines will not decline.

It is recommended that future studies look into the impact at the species level especially on the most vulnerable forest types.

Working Paper 8:  Vulnerability of Watershed Communities to Climate Variability and Extremes in the Philippines

Pulhin, J.M., Peras R.J.J., Cruz, R.V.O., Lasco, R.D., Pulhin, F.B., and Tapia, M.A.  Environmental Forestry Programme.  College of Forestry and Natural Resources. July 2004.  University of the Philippines Los Baños.  Laguna. Philippines.

Paper submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), a joint project of START, the Third World Academy of Sciences, and the UN Environment Programme. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the corresponding author.

The adverse impacts of climate variability and extremes are increasingly felt in most parts of Southeast Asia over the last decades.  In the Philippines, the poor farmers living in the watershed areas are believed to be among the more vulnerable groups to these natural phenomena. 

This paper synthesizes the results of a pioneering study on the vulnerability of local communities to climate variability and extremes within the Pantabangan-Caranglan Watershed (PCW) located in Northern Philippines.  The study attempts to provide answer to the following research questions:

• What were the major natural occurrences experienced by the local communities in PCW that reflect climate variability and extremes over the last few decades?

• Who are the vulnerable groups in the communities and where in the watershed are they located? 

• What is the extent and nature of their vulnerability in relation to climate variability and extremes?

• What socioeconomic factors influence the vulnerability of the different groups?

• What conclusions could be drawn from the Philippine experience that could help advance the current state of knowledge and policies relevant to the vulnerability of local communities to climate variability and extremes?

Following the UNEP (2001) definition of vulnerability and the multi-dimensional framework of vulnerability advanced by Moss et al 1999, the study used a combination of secondary information, household survey, participatory rural appraisal techniques, and actual field observation to address the above questions.

Findings of the study reveal that poor farmers are the most vulnerable group in the Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed.  These farmers do not own land, have no capital, without farming machineries, may live in vulnerable areas, and have poor adaptation strategies.  Their vulnerability can be attributed to lack of/limited access to productive base (human, natural, and manufactured capital); limited/inappropriate policy and institutional mechanism that provides assistance to the poor; and inequitable social structure that enables the better off to capture the benefits from development projects. 

The paper highlights the need to examine the multiple stressors that contribute to people’s vulnerability to understand this complex process.  To reduce vulnerability, policies and development programs should aim at empowering the local communities to broaden their range of choices of appropriate strategies rather than making them dependent on external support.

Working Paper 9:  Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: Water Resources of Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed

Cruz, R.V.O., Lasco, R.D., Pulhin, J.M., Pulhin, F.B., and Garcia, K.B. June 2005. Environmental Forestry Programme.  College of Forestry and Natural Resources.  University of the Philippines Los Baños.  Laguna. Philippines.

Paper submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), a joint project of START, the Third World Academy of Sciences, and the UN Environment Programme. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the corresponding author.

INTRODUCTION

One of the most vital functions of watersheds in the country is the provision of water for irrigation of lowland agricultural farms. Almost 45% of the total land area of the Philippines is devoted to agriculture of which almost 4 million ha are planted to rice. About 2.5 M ha of ricelands are irrigated and depend mostly on surface waters draining from the watersheds (NEDA, 2002). Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed (PCW) is one of the major river basins in the country that can supply irrigation water to more than 100,000 ha of paddy ricelands. But like most of the many river basins in the country, the ability of PCW to provide adequate irrigation water is becoming increasingly stressed by human activities mainly farming, forest clearing, and logging. Foremost among the adverse impacts of these activities are excessive surface soil erosion and siltation of rivers, reservoirs, lakes, lowland farms and coastal ecosystems.  The aggravation of this dire condition of watershed in the country will likely continue with the increasing water demand from the rapidly growing population. Further, climate change could put more pressure on water if the impacts on the watershed would lead to more land deterioration and to reduction in the water balance due to decreased rainfall and elevated temperature.

This study will attempt to describe the likely impacts of future climate on the streamflow from PCW based on certain future conditions of climate and land use and land cover, and its implications on the lowland rice farmers who depend on PCW reservoir for its irrigation needs.